China will likely avoid a financial crisis and is on track to reach high income status by 2027, according to a new Morgan Stanley report on the nation’s longer-term prospects titled "Why we are bullish on China."

根據(jù)摩根士丹利有關(guān)中國(guó)中長(zhǎng)期前景的最新報(bào)告《我們?yōu)楹慰礉q中國(guó)》，中國(guó)有可能躲過(guò)金融危機(jī)，有望到2027年成為高收入國(guó)家。

The sweeping outlook comes amid growing concern over China’s surging debt levels, slow pace of reforms and the impact of a potential trade spat with the U.S. While acknowledging those concerns as legitimate, the analysts point to the country’s increasing shift into high value-added manufacturing and services that will play a central role in boosting per capita incomes to $12,900 over the next decade from $8,100 now. 

摩根士丹利作出這一廣泛展望之際，投資者正日益擔(dān)憂中國(guó)的債務(wù)水平激增、改革步伐放緩以及可能與美國(guó)發(fā)生貿(mào)易摩擦的影響。摩根士丹利的分析師們雖然承認(rèn)這些擔(dān)憂是合理的，但他們指出，中國(guó)正在不斷朝著高附加值制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型，這將在未來(lái)十年發(fā)生關(guān)鍵作用，促進(jìn)人均收入從當(dāng)前的8,100美元上升至 12,900美元。

詞匯解析：

prospect  前景     bullish on  看漲

outlook   展望     trade spat   貿(mào)易摩擦

At the same time, the risk of a financial shock remains low even though overall debt soared to 279 percent of the economy last year from 147 percent in 2007. That’s because borrowing has been funded by China’s own savings and been used for investment. Strong net asset positions provide a buffer along with an ongoing current account surplus, high foreign reserves and the absence of significant inflationary pressures that would destabilize the financial system, according to the report.

與此同時(shí)，盡管中國(guó)債務(wù)總額與經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的比例從2007年的147%上升至去年的279%，但發(fā)生金融危機(jī)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然較低。這是因?yàn)榻杩畹馁Y金來(lái)源是中國(guó)自己的儲(chǔ)蓄，而用途是投資。根據(jù)報(bào)告，強(qiáng)大的凈資產(chǎn)頭寸，加上持續(xù)的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余、龐大的外匯儲(chǔ)備以及通脹壓力不明顯，這些都為中國(guó)防范金融危機(jī)提供了緩沖。

A one-off devaluation of the yuan is also unlikely thoughthe currency will likely weaken further, according to Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利認(rèn)為，雖然人民幣有可能進(jìn)一步走軟，但人民幣一次性貶值的可能性不大。

詞匯解析：

soar  攀升   buffer  緩沖

one-off devaluation 一次性貶值